It can be assumed that, in keeping with the practice of other de jure unrecognized nuclear states, Israel saved up to a quarter of its weapons-grade plutonium reserves for unforeseen needs.
Thus, by the beginning of , Israel may have had between and weapons in its nuclear arsenal. The information presented above indicates that Israel has built a full-fledged research and production base for its nuclear industry, which enables it to not only support its current nuclear capabilities, but also expand them if necessary.
There is little reason to believe that Tel Aviv would decide to conduct full-scale nuclear tests without extreme need, considering how much its image in the eyes of the international community would suffer following such a move. Expert analysis indicates that the Israeli armed forces Israel Defense Forces currently possess a nuclear triad that relies on dual-use delivery systems: tactical aircraft, mobile missile systems, and diesel-electric submarines.
The only aircraft in the Israeli Air Force fleet that can be used as carriers of nuclear bombs are the American-made F and F tactical fighters. The F Eagle Israeli modification FI has a combat range of 1, kilometers without mid-air refueling, and a maximum flight speed of 2, kilometers per hour at an altitude of 11, meters its operational ceiling is 18, meters. The F Falcon Israeli modification FI has a combat range of 1,—1, kilometers without mid-air refueling, and a maximum flight speed of 2, kilometers per hour at an altitude of 11, meters its operational ceiling is 18, meters.
In early , reports surfaced that Israeli FIs and FIs were now capable of being armed with Popeye air-to-surface nuclear cruise missiles. In addition to aircraft, the Israeli Air Force is armed with Jericho II and Jericho III ballistic missiles on mobile launchers, which can be equipped with either conventional or nuclear warheads. The solid-fuel, medium-range, two-stage Jericho II entered service in It has a launch mass of around 14 tons and a range of 1,—1, kilometers with a warhead mass of —1, kilograms.
The solid-fuel, medium-range, three-stage Jericho III entered service in It has a launch mass of 29—30 tons and a range of over 4, kilometers with a warhead mass of 1,—1, kilograms. Between and , Israel test-launched an upgraded version of the Jericho III ballistic missile with a new, more powerful engine.
The missile was equipped with a warhead containing two or three independently targeted reentry vehicles. The missile has a maximum range of about 6, kilometers. For this reason, it is expected that the deployment of this missile will be a very measured process. During peacetime, the launchers are not deployed, but are located in specially equipped, highly protected underground facilities.
As for the potential development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, Israel is carrying out experimental design work on creating an intercontinental three-stage, solid-fuel missile known as the Jericho IV. Its first test flights are expected to be conducted in — Tel Aviv apparently believes that the introduction of nuclear intercontinental missiles with a range of 10,—12, kilometers will enable it to create the potential—however minimal—for a nuclear deterrence in regard to any nuclear power capable of posing a threat to Israel.
This will allow it to avoid situations like that seen in during the Suez Crisis, when Israel was forced to yield to the nuclear superiority of the Soviet Union.
Israel not only ceased its military action against Egypt, whose armed forces had essentially been decimated; it also had to completely withdraw its troops from territory it had captured from Egypt. Testing and combat training launches of ballistic missiles and low-orbit space boosters using the Shavit space launch vehicle are conducted at the Palmachim test site 22 kilometers southwest of Tel Aviv. In addition to this test site, a towable marine platform located in the basin of the Mediterranean Sea is also used for the testing and combat training launches of ballistic missiles.
The Israeli navy has six of these submarines the first three were acquired from Germany in —, the next three in — There are no reliable data on the type of cruise missiles deployed on these submarines. According to some sources, they are an Israeli modification of the American Sub-Harpoon cruise missile with a range of up to kilometers. The range of the Popeye Turbo is up to 1, kilometers.
An estimated 30—40 nuclear weapons have been allocated for the cruise missiles deployed on the Dolphin-class submarines. In January , the German government agreed to deliver another batch of three more Dolphin-class submarines to Israel. The delivery of the latest batch of submarines is expected to begin in —, and they may go into service starting in Partly as a result of the steady development of Saudi air power in response to Iraq and Iran, Israel's potential antagonists are closing the gap in numbers and quality, and the Israeli Air Force does not offer the same margin of safety that once it did.
With the Arabs' approaching 1. If Turkey is included, as it might be, Israel's prospects become seriously darker. In light of the fact that the conventional balance can change and is changing, one of the many purposes of Iran's drive for nuclear weapons is not merely to wait for a lucky shot at Tel Aviv, but to neutralize Israel's nuclear deterrent so as to allow a series of conventional battles to advance Israel's downfall incrementally. The military grand strategy of Israel's enemies is now to alter the conventional balance while either equipping themselves with nuclear weapons or denying Israel its own.
Their calls for equation of the two sides in a nuclear-free Middle East leave out the lack of equation in aims. Israel cannot dream of conquering its adversaries and replacing them with a Jewish state. But from war to war its adversaries have made their intentions clear, and as their mass and wealth are applied to their militaries over time, Israel's last line of defense in a continual state of siege is the nuclear arsenal devoted solely to the preservation of its existence.
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